Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
